Backtesting Arena

Backtesting Arena

Does Altcoin Season Filter help MACD Cross?

Crypto · 583 backtest runs · As of 20 Jul 2026 · Methodology

NeutralDSR ✗ not confirmed

No material CAGR effect (±1pp vs. baseline). Filter may still reduce drawdown.

CAGR Comparison

Baseline CAGR
-3.5%
no filter
Filtered CAGR
-3.6%
Altcoin Season Filter
Δ CAGR
-0.10%
Sample
583
runs
Baseline Net CAGR
-4.0%
after costs
Filtered Net CAGR
-4.5%
after costs

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Baseline Sharpe
-0.012
median
Filtered Sharpe
-0.059
Δ Sharpe
-0.05
DSR
0.0%
not confirmed

How does this filter work?

BUY signals only during altcoin season

DSR Methodology

DSR = PSR(SR̂₀) per Bailey & López de Prado (2014). SR̂₀ = 0.7353 (expected best Sharpe from 7 random filter trials).

Testing multiple filters on the same data increases the chance of finding a good result by luck. DSR measures whether this result clears the multiple-testing threshold. Pass threshold: DSR ≥ 90%. Current: 0.0%.

Full analysis in Edge Library

Per-asset breakdown, trade-level data, Sharpe comparison — available after sign-in.

← All edge reportsComputed 20 Jul 2026 · Methodology