Dip Decision Tool
Buy now, wait for the dip, or split? Make your assumptions explicit — the rest is math.
Buy Now or Wait for the Dip?
All-in-now is EV-optimal while the dip probability stays below 29%. Above that, waiting wins.
Breakeven at 29% — set by your target, dip price and target probability, not by the dip-probability slider. The slider only moves the "your X%" marker to show where you currently sit on this chart. Left of breakeven: Buy Now wins · right: Waiting wins. Split (dashed) always falls between both on plain expected value — for the risk-adjusted optimum where a split can win, → Optimal Allocation tab.
- Target price (×) — The price level where you'd take profit, as a multiple of today's price. 2× = a doubling. This is your optimistic scenario.
- Dip price (×) — The pullback level you'd buy at if you decide to wait. 0.5× = you wait for a 50% drop. Must be below today's price (< 1×).
- Dip probability — How likely is it that price actually dips to that level before rallying? Your estimate of near-term downside risk. Independent of whether the target is eventually hit.
- Target probability — The overall chance the target is ever reached — whether price goes straight up or dips first. Set to 70% and there is a 30% chance the target is never hit (failure).
- Failure price (×) — Where price ends up if the target is never hit. Only affects the result when Target probability is below 100%. At 100% this field has no effect.
- Split — deploy now (%) — The share of your capital to invest today; the rest is reserved for the dip. On plain expected value, Split always lands between Buy Now and Waiting — it never beats both. To find the split that wins on a risk-adjusted basis, use the Optimal Allocation tab.
- Capital — Your total budget for this position. All expected-value results are shown in this amount.
- Expected value is not risk. Maximising plain expected value always points to an all-or-nothing corner. An interior split is only "optimal" once you price in risk — that is what the γ slider does.
- γ = 1 is growth-optimal (Kelly-style). It maximises long-run compounding, not a single outcome. Lower γ chases the highest average expected value; higher γ protects against missing or losing.
- Garbage in, garbage out. The prices and probabilities are your subjective assumptions. The tool makes them explicit and consistent — it does not make them true.
Buy Now or Wait for the Dip? — Decision Math
Three calculators, one honest question: deploy now, wait for the dip, or split? Worked article example (target 2×, dip at 0.5×, 30% dip probability, €1,000): all-in-now €2,000 expected · wait-for-dip €1,900 · 50/50 split €1,950.
- All in now (EV, example)
- €2,000
- Wait for dip (EV, example)
- €1,900
- Split 50/50 (EV, example)
- €1,950
- Dip-safe leverage ceiling (−20% dip)
- 4.88×
Compare mode ranks the three entry strategies by expected value across every dip probability. Allocation mode finds the risk-adjusted optimal split between deploying now and reserving for the dip (CRRA utility, γ=1 = Kelly growth-optimal). Leverage mode shows the liquidation price of a leveraged long and the dip-safe ceiling — the leverage at which your own expected dip becomes a total loss.
Everything is computed in your browser from your own assumptions; no data leaves the page. Not financial advice — a decision aid for thinking clearly about assumptions you already hold.