Bitcoin Return Probability — Base Rates
As of 23 Jul 2026 · unconditional · mature-era history since 1 Dec 2018 (2791 days)
Over any 1-year window, BTC returned a median of +55.18% (67.61% of windows positive), with a -42.14% … +283.71% 80% band. A ≥20% drawdown occurred in 49.03% of windows.
Base rate over ≈7 independent years — not a forecast.
Forward-return distribution by horizon
| Horizon | Median | p10 … p90 | Positive | P(≥20% DD) | P(new ATH) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | +2.11% | -17.74% … +31.48% | 55.74% | 11.59% | 22.93% |
| 90 days | +7.6% | -26.6% … +69.45% | 58.03% | 32.12% | 38.56% |
| 180 days | +20.32% | -38.55% … +153.22% | 63.28% | 44.6% | 55.93% |
| 1 year | +55.18% | -42.14% … +283.71% | 67.61% | 49.03% | 75.15% |
Method & caveats
- Bewusster Zuschnitt auf die Mature-Era ab 2018-12-01; die Extremjahre 2011–2017 sind ausgenommen und würden die Kennzahlen stark nach oben verzerren (offengelegter Researcher-Degree-of-Freedom).
- Unbedingte Single-Asset-Basisrate → implizit konditioniert darauf, dass BTC überlebt hat (inhärenter Survivorship-Bias bei Single-Asset).
- Median/Quantile sind die belastbaren Kennzahlen; der Mean ist über überlappende Jahres-Fenster autokorreliert und von wenigen Bull-Run-Start-Clustern dominiert (bei wenigen unabhängigen Jahren fragil).
This is the unconditionalbase rate. For the view conditioned on today's market fingerprint, see the historical analogues.
Related knowledge
For research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal.
← Market State TodayUpdated 23 Jul 2026