Bitcoin Historical Analogues
As of 23 Jul 2026 · 10 most similar setups (⌀ 85.22% match) · from 941 candidates since 1 Dec 2018
When BTC looked like today, the next 90 days delivered a median of +17.9% (60% positive) — over 30 days +0.32% (50% positive).
A distribution of past outcomes — not a forecast.
Outcome distribution
The 10 most similar periods
| Date | Match | BTC price | +30d | +90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2019 | 93.86% | $3,988 | -12.94% | +26.49% |
| 8 Aug 2022 | 93.44% | $23,810 | -18.97% | -12.2% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | 93.23% | $75,933 | +2.52% | -14.89% |
| 12 Jan 2023 | 92.65% | $18,847 | +16% | +58.59% |
| 12 Apr 2019 | 90.01% | $5,048 | +38.02% | +124.7% |
| 7 May 2022 | 83.61% | $35,472 | -11.56% | -34.28% |
| 21 Apr 2023 | 81.48% | $27,263 | -1.89% | +9.31% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | 78.53% | $88,428 | -24.23% | -15.61% |
| 24 Apr 2020 | 74.79% | $7,505 | +16.19% | +27.96% |
| 24 Jul 2020 | 70.55% | $9,538 | +22.13% | +35.97% |
How this works
Each day carries a 9-dimensional fingerprint of Bitcoin cycle indicators. Similarity is a weighted distance to today. The nearest days ≥21 days apart (distinct episodes, each with a complete 90-day forward window → no look-ahead) form the set above. The fingerprint comes from the Bitcoin cycle position. Compare with the unconditional base-rate probability.
Related knowledge
For research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Historical outcomes describe the past; they do not predict the future.