Bitcoin Historical Analogues
As of 24 Sept 2026 · 10 most similar setups (⌀ 83.29% match) · from 2769 candidates since 1 Dec 2018
When BTC looked like today, the next 90 days delivered a median of -0.9% (50% positive) — over 30 days -0.22% (50% positive).
A distribution of past outcomes — not a forecast.
Outcome distribution
The 10 most similar periods
| Date | Match | BTC price | +30d | +90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2023 | 93.47% | $27,800 | +4.41% | +10.13% |
| 18 May 2019 | 90.46% | $7,257 | +28.34% | +42.36% |
| 5 May 2026 | 88.84% | $80,348 | -22.63% | -21.37% |
| 5 Apr 2022 | 81.78% | $45,498 | -19.66% | -55.52% |
| 13 Feb 2019 | 81.56% | $3,609 | +8.71% | +120.19% |
| 15 Jan 2026 | 81.49% | $95,605 | -26.97% | -21.75% |
| 14 Aug 2022 | 81.26% | $24,305 | -17% | -30.83% |
| 9 May 2020 | 79.4% | $9,539 | +2.54% | +21.54% |
| 2 Jul 2023 | 78.81% | $30,617 | -2.98% | -11.94% |
| 29 Oct 2023 | 75.87% | $34,526 | +9.54% | +22% |
How this works
Each day carries a 9-dimensional fingerprint of Bitcoin cycle indicators. Similarity is a weighted distance to today. The nearest days ≥21 days apart (distinct episodes, each with a complete 90-day forward window → no look-ahead) form the set above. The fingerprint comes from the Bitcoin cycle position. Compare with the unconditional base-rate probability.
Related knowledge
For research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Historical outcomes describe the past; they do not predict the future.