Event Base Rate · REGIME_SHIFT_BTC
As of 24 Sept 2026 · Explainable knowledge object · Not a trading signal
BTC base rate after a confirmed regime shift (anchor = confirmation day, 90d forward). By target state: accumulation: +60.91% (n=3, below gate); recovery: +9.43% (n=11); expansion: -5.68% (n=9, below gate); distribution: +4.32% (n=7, below gate); overheated: +33.84% (n=4, below gate). Strongest base "recovery": median +9.43% over 13 transitions (13 distinct months). "After any regime shift" mixes bullish and bearish transitions → not direction-interpretable. Regime transitions are rare → every bucket carries its month count; read thin buckets per case. Descriptive, not a forecast. Unconditional view: return_probability; state-conditional: market_analogue.
Factors
Related knowledge
Source & reproducibility
- Object: ko:event_base_rate:regime_shift_btc:2026-09-24
- Engine: event-base-rate-engine v2.1.0
- As of: 24 Sept 2026 · computed 2026-09-24
- Repro hash: sha256:107ab3523c5c9c48a…
- Inputs: 2 provenance references
This is a descriptive, explainable knowledge object for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Figures describe the past and present; they do not predict the future.