Event Base Rate · REGIME_SHIFT_ETH
As of 24 Sept 2026 · Explainable knowledge object · Not a trading signal
ETH base rate after a confirmed regime shift (anchor = confirmation day, 90d forward). By target state: accumulation: +4.8% (n=3, below gate); recovery: +18.12% (n=9, below gate); expansion: +15.16% (n=11); distribution: -13.92% (n=6, below gate); overheated: +8.6% (n=5, below gate). Strongest base "expansion": median +15.16% over 13 transitions (13 distinct months). "After any regime shift" mixes bullish and bearish transitions → not direction-interpretable. Regime transitions are rare → every bucket carries its month count; read thin buckets per case. Descriptive, not a forecast. Unconditional view: return_probability; state-conditional: market_analogue.
Factors
Related knowledge
Source & reproducibility
- Object: ko:event_base_rate:regime_shift_eth:2026-09-24
- Engine: event-base-rate-engine v2.1.0
- As of: 24 Sept 2026 · computed 2026-09-24
- Repro hash: sha256:abeaa0a346b975a3c…
- Inputs: 2 provenance references
This is a descriptive, explainable knowledge object for research and education — not financial advice and not a buy/sell signal. Figures describe the past and present; they do not predict the future.