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Strategies›Ichimoku Cloud (TK-Cross)
Ichimoku Cloud (TK-Cross) master

Ichimoku Cloud (TK-Cross) Strategy

Goichi Hosoda's Ichimoku Kinko Hyo — TK-Cross with optional Cloud confirmation. Five-line system used by Japanese institutional traders since 1969.

Try in Arena →View Live Insights →

Quick Facts

Type:
Trend Following · classic
Plan:
Pro
Asset Classes:
Crypto · Tokenized RWA
Indicators:
Tenkan-sen · Kijun-sen · Senkou Span A/B (Cloud)

Community Performance

ⓘ
CAGR
+1.1%
Win Rate
43%
Max DD
-63%

Basis: 385 user backtests · BTCUSDT · 1d · 4 years

How It Works

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo ("one glance equilibrium chart") was developed by Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda over decades and finally published in 1969. It is a complete trend-following system in one chart, used by Japanese banks and institutions ever since.

Five lines:

  • Tenkan-sen (default 9): (highest-high(9) + lowest-low(9)) / 2. Fast trend line.
  • Kijun-sen (default 26): same formula, 26 bars. Baseline.
  • Senkou Span A: (Tenkan + Kijun) / 2, plotted +26 bars forward.
  • Senkou Span B (default 52): (highest-high(52) + lowest-low(52)) / 2, plotted +26 bars forward.
  • Chikou Span: today's close, plotted −26 bars back (we do not use it in TK-Cross).

The area between Senkou A and B forms the Kumo (Cloud) — projected support/resistance.

Important on the forward shift: the Senkou values at bar T are computed from data at bar T − displacement. So at trading-decision time on bar T, the Cloud level above bar T already exists — built only from historical data. No look-ahead.

TK-Cross ruleset (this implementation — the simplest of the classic Ichimoku rulesets):

Entry (BUY):

  • Tenkan crosses Kijun upward (prevTenkan ≤ prevKijun AND currTenkan > currKijun)
  • AND (cloud-filter off) OR (price > top of cloud)

Exit (SELL):

  • Tenkan crosses Kijun downward, OR
  • Price drops below the bottom of the cloud (if cloud-filter is on)

The cloud-filter adds discipline — it suppresses early TK-Cross signals that fire inside the Cloud (sideways market). With the filter off, you get pure momentum signals — more trades, more whipsaw.

Universal — Ichimoku works on every asset class. The 9/26/52/26 defaults are Hosoda's original numbers, chosen for Japanese trading days (6-day week × ~1.5 weeks etc.).

Entry & Exit Rules

▲Entry

  • ●Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen (TK-Cross UP)
  • ●Optional: price is above the top of the Cloud (Cloud-Filter on)
  • ●Position is currently flat

▼Exit

  • ●Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen (TK-Cross DOWN), OR
  • ●Price drops below the bottom of the Cloud (if Cloud-Filter is on)
  • ●Position is currently long

Parameters

NameDefaultRangeDescription
Tenkan Period92–100Fast trend line (Donchian midpoint of 9 bars).
Kijun Period262–200Baseline (Donchian midpoint of 26 bars).
Senkou B Period525–300Senkou Span B uses this many bars (Cloud bottom in flat markets).
Displacement261–100Forward-shift for the Cloud (and Chikou-shift back). Default 26 = Hosoda's classic.
Cloud Filteroff–`off` (default, pure TK-Cross): only Tenkan/Kijun crossover signals trade. `on`: BUY also requires price above Cloud, SELL also fires below Cloud — more selective but misses early trend reversals at cloud-breakouts.

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Performance per Asset

Top-10 assets by average CAGR (1d interval), aggregated from community + platform backtests. Actual results depend on parameters and period.

AssetCAGRvs B&H★Win%YearsRuns
SOLUSDT+56.6%+4.9pp5343%5.77
SANDUSDT+53.1%+57.1pp—41%5.66
FTMUSDT+52.6%-20.7pp—44%5.55
THETAETH+50.2%+63.0pp8145%6.41
SEIUSDT+45.4%+82.2pp—44%2.65
PEPEUSDT+38.7%+47.4pp—33%2.98
ADAUSDT+37.4%+16.7pp—47%7.37
VETUSDT+37.1%+34.5pp—45%7.39
NEARUSDT+35.5%+24.3pp—49%5.56
RUNEUSDT+35.0%+48.9pp—45%5.65
pp = delta vs avg-B&H · ★ = robustness score 0-100 (CAGR / win-rate / drawdown / consistency).Full Insights →

Pseudo-Code

expand
// 5 lines
mid(period, i) = (highest-high(period, i) + lowest-low(period, i)) / 2

tenkan[i]  = mid(9,  i)
kijun[i]   = mid(26, i)
senkouA[i] = (tenkan[i - 26] + kijun[i - 26]) / 2   // value at bar i, built from data at i-26
senkouB[i] = mid(52, i - 26)                         // same forward-shift

for each bar i:
  bullCross = tenkan[i-1] <= kijun[i-1] and tenkan[i] > kijun[i]
  bearCross = tenkan[i-1] >= kijun[i-1] and tenkan[i] < kijun[i]
  cloudTop  = max(senkouA[i], senkouB[i])
  cloudBot  = min(senkouA[i], senkouB[i])

  // ENTRY
  if position.is_flat and bullCross:
    if requireCloudFilter == 'off' or close[i] > cloudTop:
      BUY

  // EXIT
  if position.is_long:
    if bearCross: SELL
    if requireCloudFilter == 'on' and close[i] < cloudBot: SELL

Strengths & Weaknesses

+Strengths

  • ●Battle-tested Japanese system (1969, in continuous institutional use)
  • ●Five lines together filter noise — Cloud-Filter adds explicit regime check
  • ●Forward-projected Cloud gives forward-looking support/resistance — still no look-ahead
  • ●Universal — works on any liquid asset class and timeframe

−Weaknesses

  • ●TK-Cross alone is whippy in ranges — cloud-filter on is recommended
  • ●Lag — default Kijun 26 means slower than EMA-Cross
  • ●This implementation uses only TK-Cross. Full Ichimoku has 3-confirmation entries (TK-Cross + price above cloud + Chikou above price 26 bars ago) — more strict, fewer trades.
  • ●Phase 1: long+cash only — no shorts

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the forward-projected Cloud not look-ahead?+

No. The Senkou values *at bar T* are computed from data at bar `T - 26`. The Cloud is drawn 26 bars into the future *visually* — but for any trading decision at bar T, we only ever look at Senkou values *at* bar T, which depend only on historical data. There is no look-ahead.

Why is the default Cloud-Filter `on`?+

Pure TK-Cross fires very often in sideways markets — many of them are losers. The Cloud-Filter ensures we only enter long when the regime (price above cloud) supports the direction, and exit early when price breaks below the cloud. This trades fewer signals but with materially better win-rate. Turn it off only if you want pure momentum and accept more whipsaw.

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