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Strategies›Williams Alligator
Williams Alligator master

Williams Alligator Strategy

Bill Williams' Alligator — 3 SMMAs (Jaw 13 / Teeth 8 / Lips 5) with optional Awesome Oscillator confirmation + sleeping-state exit.

Try in Arena →View Live Insights →

Quick Facts

Type:
Trend Following · classic
Plan:
Pro
Asset Classes:
Crypto · Tokenized RWA
Indicators:
SMMA Jaw · SMMA Teeth · SMMA Lips · Awesome Oscillator · ATR

Community Performance

ⓘ
CAGR
+9.3%
Win Rate
40%
Max DD
-65%

Basis: 276 user backtests · BTCUSDT · 1d · 4 years

How It Works

The Alligator was introduced by Bill Williams in his 1995 book Trading Chaos. The metaphor: an alligator that wakes up (mouth opens) to feed during trends, then sleeps (mouth closes) during ranges. Three Smoothed Moving Averages on the median price (high+low)/2:

  • Jaw (blue) = SMMA(13), shifted +8 bars forward
  • Teeth (red) = SMMA(8), shifted +5 bars
  • Lips (green) = SMMA(5), shifted +3 bars

The forward shift is critical to Williams' original design — it introduces lag, not look-ahead. The value at bar T uses data only up to T-shift.

Bullish alignment: Lips > Teeth > Jaw. Bearish: Lips < Teeth < Jaw.

Entry rule: alignment crossover into bullish state (alignment was NOT bullish on previous bar AND IS bullish on current bar). With optional AO confirmation (Awesome Oscillator must also be bullish: AO[T] > AO[T-1] AND AO[T] > 0): adds a filter to suppress weak signals.

Exit rules:

  • Bearish-alignment crossover (mirror of entry).
  • Sleeping exit: when the range between max and min of the 3 lines drops below sleeping_threshold × ATR(14). The Alligator is asleep — range market — exit before whipsaw.

Calc modes:

  • smma_shifted (default, Bill Williams classic): SMMA + forward shift.
  • sma_simple (TradingView-style): plain SMA, no shift. Different signal characteristic.

Universal — works on any liquid asset class. The 3-line + AO combo is age-old technical analysis, well understood, transparent.

Entry & Exit Rules

▲Entry

  • ●Bullish alignment (Lips > Teeth > Jaw) just became true
  • ●Optional: Awesome Oscillator is bullish (current > previous AND > 0)
  • ●Position is currently flat

▼Exit

  • ●Bearish alignment crossover (Lips < Teeth < Jaw) becomes true, OR
  • ●Sleeping state: range of 3 lines < sleeping_threshold × ATR(14)
  • ●Position is currently long

Parameters

NameDefaultRangeDescription
Calc Modesmma_shifted–`smma_shifted`: Bill Williams classic with forward-shift. `sma_simple`: TradingView-style plain SMA, no shift.
Jaw Length133–200Slow line period.
Teeth Length83–200Medium line period.
Lips Length53–200Fast line period.
AO Confirmation–Require Awesome Oscillator to also confirm bullish before entry.
Sleeping Threshold (×ATR)0.50.1–5Exit when range of 3 lines is below this × ATR — Alligator is asleep, range market detected.

Live Backtest

The pre-baked mini-backtest is refreshed daily — check back soon or start a live run in the Arena.

Run in Arena →

Performance per Asset

Top-10 assets by average CAGR (1d interval), aggregated from community + platform backtests. Actual results depend on parameters and period.

AssetCAGRvs B&H★Win%YearsRuns
SOLUSDT+120.2%+47.6pp—43%5.73
INJUSDT+101.5%+61.4pp—43%5.53
SANDUSDT+87.7%+88.1pp—49%5.73
THETAUSDT+82.4%+76.9pp—49%7.03
HBARUSDT+78.4%+64.3pp—55%6.53
AXSUSDT+75.6%+32.2pp—50%5.53
STXUSDT+69.8%+77.6pp—58%6.53
ADAUSDT+66.8%+68.4pp—55%8.03
NEARUSDT+66.0%+54.5pp—44%5.53
SUIUSDT+63.3%+75.0pp—43%3.03
pp = delta vs avg-B&H · ★ = robustness score 0-100 (CAGR / win-rate / drawdown / consistency).Full Insights →

Pseudo-Code

expand
// Three SMMAs on median price = (high+low)/2
median = (high + low) / 2
jaw   = SMMA(median, jawLength, shift=jawShift)     // 13/+8
teeth = SMMA(median, teethLength, shift=teethShift) // 8/+5
lips  = SMMA(median, lipsLength, shift=lipsShift)   // 5/+3

// Awesome Oscillator
ao = SMA(median, aoFast) - SMA(median, aoSlow)  // default 5 - 34

for each bar:
  bullAlign     = lips > teeth > jaw
  bullAlignPrev = lipsPrev > teethPrev > jawPrev
  bearAlign     = lips < teeth < jaw

  // ENTRY: alignment crossover
  if position.is_flat and bullAlign and not bullAlignPrev:
    if aoConfirmation and (ao <= aoPrev or ao <= 0):
      continue   // AO not bullish, skip
    BUY

  // EXIT: bearish-alignment OR sleeping (range < threshold × ATR)
  if position.is_long:
    if bearAlign:
      SELL
    if (max(lips,teeth,jaw) - min(lips,teeth,jaw)) < sleepingThresholdAtrMult * ATR(14):
      SELL  // alligator is asleep

Strengths & Weaknesses

+Strengths

  • ●Classic, transparent, well-documented (Bill Williams, 1995)
  • ●Works on any liquid asset class (crypto / stocks / ETF / commodities / forex)
  • ●Sleeping-state exit prevents grinding losses in range markets
  • ●AO confirmation cuts ~30-40% of false signals

−Weaknesses

  • ●Lagging by design — forward-shift introduces ~5-8 bars delay
  • ●13-period jaw means slow on shorter timeframes
  • ●Phase 1: long+cash only — no shorts, no fractals (look-ahead risk)

Frequently Asked Questions

Why the forward-shift on the moving averages?+

Williams' original 1995 design uses forward-shifts to introduce intentional lag, not look-ahead. The value at bar T uses data only up to T-shift bars ago (e.g. Jaw at bar T = SMMA of data up to bar T-8). This delays signals but makes them more robust against intra-bar noise. The `sma_simple` mode is for traders who prefer TradingView's no-shift convention.

Related Strategies

EMA Trend Bias

Two EMAs plus an ATR-based neutral zone — like the commercial Larsson Line, but tunable, transparent, and backtested. Choose your bias.

EMA · ATR

Supertrend

The ratcheting ATR-based trend follower — one of the most popular indicators on TradingView. Dynamic stop levels that lock in as the trend confirms.

ATR · Supertrend

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