Event Base Rate · REGIME_SHIFT_SOL

SOL base rate after a confirmed regime shift (anchor = confirmation day, 90d forward). By target state: accumulation: +11.97% (n=2, below gate); recovery: -11.1% (n=6, below gate); expansion: +17.55% (n=5, below gate); distribution: -2.31% (n=5, below gate); overheated: -8.55% (n=3, below gate). Strongest base "recovery": median -11.1% over 7 transitions (7 distinct months, below the 12-month gate). "After any regime shift" mixes bullish and bearish transitions → not direction-interpretable. Regime transitions are rare → every bucket carries its month count; read thin buckets per case. Descriptive, not a forecast. Unconditional view: return_probability; state-conditional: market_analogue.