Arena Blog

A 5-asset what-if simulator: Bitcoin, S&P 500, Ethereum, Gold and Cash. See your mix vs. 100% Bitcoin — with Sharpe, max drawdown and volatility, not just end value.

41 days ago, the first backtest ran in the Arena. Today, we crossed **10,000**. Average pace: **248 backtests per day**, every day. We didn't see this coming — and the numbers say more about you than about us.

A single number from 0 to 100, but built from 8 market indicators instead of one. Bullmarket stage, MVRV, Mayer, funding rates, hash ribbons — aggregated, transparent, free.

For 18 months we've been quietly building Backtesting Arena — a platform where 500+ users have run 10,000+ backtests across Bitcoin, stocks, ETFs, commodities, and forex. Daily cycle scores, on-chain indicators, sentiment dashboards, strategy insights. All powered by the same data layer that's been running on a private quasi-API.

Six frontier LLMs got $10,000 each and were told to autonomously trade crypto perps. Four lost more than 60 percent. The two winners were Chinese. What this really tells us isn't "China wins AI." It's: LLMs are language probability models, not market actors. A sober look at the latest empirical evidence that autonomous AI trading doesn't work.

CAGR assumptions are smooth. Bitcoin isn't. Anyone planning in a hypothetical world of constant 20% growth is planning for a world that never existed. We've added a Historical Replay mode to the Bitcoin Lifestyle Calculator — pick a start year and we run your strategy through the actual BTC history with Mt.Gox aftermath, COVID crash, FTX collapse, and ATH hype. Here's why that's often brutal and always honest.

Most BTC lifestyle calculators give you ONE number: "in 20 years you'll have X." That's fantasy, not planning. Bitcoin runs at ~70% annualized volatility — the expected value is just one of millions of possible stories. We've added two risk lenses to the Bitcoin Lifestyle Calculator: a Multi-Path Stresstest and a 1000-path Monte Carlo simulation. Here's what they tell you and why you need both.

A new strategy for altcoins is live: trade any alt with RSI(14) / SMA(14) computed on BTC/USDT instead of on the alt itself. The idea: BTC is the bellwether — when the macro regime is on, trade alts; when it isn't, get out.

Every few months crypto media announces a Bitcoin Golden Cross. But does the signal actually work? We tested it against historical data — on daily and weekly candles. The answer is more nuanced than the headlines.

Golden Cross, RSI/SMA, and OBV-MACD compared head-to-head on Bitcoin weekly candles. Which strategy wins? The honest answer is surprising — and it says more about the market than about the strategies themselves.

Until now we wrote the strategy reports. From today you choose: strategy, universe, period, interval — we backtest and deliver PDF and Excel by email. From €14.99.

A backtest with 34% CAGR looks impressive. But is the result trustworthy? Four questions decide whether any backtest is worth taking seriously — from total return vs. CAGR to maximum drawdown to trade count.