Arena Blog
Data-driven insights on trading strategies, backtests, and market analysis.
13–24 of 181 posts · page 2 of 16
When the Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer, That Is a K-Shaped Economy. Are We in One?
The Richmond Fed tested 30 years of income data against a strict definition: a K appeared in 2002–06 and 2010–13, not after COVID. Why short stretches still last, and why no average can show one.
Why your 5× grid bot rarely gets liquidated — and why that isn't safety
A leveraged long grid was liquidated in 1 of 70 ninety-day windows since 2017 — because a grid never deploys more than half its notional. What leverage does instead: it deepens every drawdown and pays funding in the down windows.
Bitcoin doesn't tip when enough managers understand it. It tips when a zero allocationbecomes the risky choice.
The 25 percent tipping point quoted in every adoption argument comes from a naming game with 18 to 30 players per group and no right answer. It counts people; prices respond to dollars. What tips in large portfolios is not understanding but the answer to one question: what happens to me if I am the only one at zero?
Your grid bot is not a hedge. It is half a portfolio in cash.
A grid bot had the flatter drawdown in 138 of 138 windows since 2017, ranges set in advance. Not because it trades well: because it never invests more than half the money. What that protection costs in rally windows, and what a hindsight range was worth.
What 100,000 Backtests Say Actually Works in Crypto — and 4 Questions That Expose a Lying Number
Four findings you can trade on — win rates, timeframes, regime filters, costs — and four questions that expose any performance claim. From 100,000 systematic backtests.
The Interest Rate for 14 African Countries Is Set in Frankfurt. The ECB Will Not Answer for It.
The CFA franc's end was announced in 2019. The rate has not moved since — and the binding part was never the part that was announced. What a currency peg costs, who sets the price of money for fourteen countries, and what it is costing Senegal and Central Africa right now.
A Tale of Bulls, Bears and Whales
A market fable in two acts — and what it is meant to teach.
Coin Days Destroyed as a Bitcoin Signal: The Pattern Is Real. The Edge Is Not.
Rising Bitcoin while long-term holders sit still counts as deeply bullish on-chain. We replicated the pattern — and asked the one question missing: compared to what?
The Index Inclusion Effect Has Vanished. In Bitcoin ETFs, Flows Follow Price, Not the Other Way Round.
Everyone says index money buys your stock forever. At the one moment that buying is visible, the price no longer moves. We then tested both directions on Bitcoin ETF flows — and only the backward one survived.
The Median Altcoin Loses to Bitcoin in 3 of 4 Quarters. "Uptrending" Makes It Worse.
Screeners label altcoins "uptrending vs BTC" and stop there. We measured what followed the label across 370 pairs and 458,000 days — and what followed any day.
Bitcoin Realized Price: How ETF Shares Freeze the On-Chain Cost Basis
Bitcoin realized price is read as the market's average cost basis. Since ETFs and custodians hold large balances, it measures only part of it. What still holds, and what does not.
Did the October 10 Crash Push Bitcoin Into the Bear Market?
Trump announced tariffs, $19 billion was force-sold — and three days later the market looked normal again. Sorting the occasion from the cause.
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