Arena Blog

Agent payments are standardised: authorisation, identity, mandate, settlement. Whether the work was any good, nobody checks. Why that is a boundary and not a gap.

When is a backtest result a false positive? Four of our own studies failed — against four rules we locked before looking. What each one caught.

The 2/28 mortgage worked because the collateral appreciated. A GPU cannot do that. What the 2006 comparison holds up to once you put the numbers side by side.

If money grows faster than output, where does it go if not into consumption? The question has a good answer. It just isn't the one in the chart everybody posts.

Berkshire sold two thirds of its Apple stake. The cost is put at 50, 130 and 167 billion — for the same event. The difference lies in two items almost nobody deducts.

Max pain, the yen carry trade, rate cuts, the four-year cycle: seven trading myths, each held against the numbers. The answer is almost never "myth" — usually it is something less comfortable.

The holder count for tokenized equities nearly doubled in thirty days. Value per holder has halved since March. Both are true, and together they say something neither says alone.

The baseline in a backtest is what everything else is measured against. Ours was 62 % runs with a filter switched on. What that shifted, and what we changed.

A leverage backtest rarely shows more return – often less. Why effective exposure = position × leverage decides, and where 5× would have liquidated your strategy in 2018.

Your most thorough reader gets the least to read. Ten places where building for agents differs from building for people, with numbers from production.

We pre-registered a Wyckoff spring backtest: rules locked first, 10 pairs, placebo control. The result is a clean nothing — and short-term even negative.

Stacking more sats by rotating between altcoins, BTC and stablecoins sounds compelling. We measured it across 45 test cases. The result: less BTC than doing nothing.