Arena Blog

The US Treasury increasingly funds itself with short-dated T-bills. That lowers cost today — and builds rollover risk for tomorrow. A methodical read on the mechanics behind the headlines.

Our backtest engine used to compute returns before costs. We built a net-of-cost layer that re-prices every fill at a realistic fee — and it flipped our second-most-popular strategy negative after fees. Here is the math, the numbers, and why "beats buy-and-hold" is half a truth until you pay the fees.

Asking which company is well-positioned in the AI drug-discovery race is really three questions at once. We sort the field soberly into shovels, bets, and giants — and show which layer earns regardless of any single trial outcome.

Our Bollinger Squeeze strategy lost to Buy & Hold by double digits on crypto. Before deleting it, we rebuilt it to the modern standard (TTM Squeeze). The rebuild turned positive — and we retired it anyway. Why "it works now" isn't enough.

Auditing 40,000 backtests, our Fibonacci strategy came up short. Before cutting it we asked: is it our config? A better exit made it 20 points better — and we retired it anyway. Why "beats Buy & Hold" isn't the bar.

We audited 40,000 of our own backtests — and benched several of our own strategies in the process. Here is what we killed, what we reactivated, and the uncomfortable core lesson: whether a strategy is "good" depends less on the strategy than on the asset class it runs in.

A thesis says trading platforms are going "agentic" — AI monitors, signals, executes. The structural part is right. The blind spot sits where money is lost.

A chart claims to "prove" liquidity leads crypto. The thesis is serious — the chart isn't proof. What it shows, what it doesn't, and how to test it honestly.

zBTC runs, it's multi-chain, the product delivers — and the ZEUS token fell about 98%. How does that fit, and what does the road ahead look like? A sober tokenomics case study.

The Fed looks trapped: fight inflation with high rates, or refinance the debt cheaply. But it already resolved part of that bind — by decoupling its tools. A methodical read on what this means for Treasuries.

"Bitcoin splits in August because miners disagree." The date is roughly right, the mechanism in that sentence isn't. What BIP-110 actually triggers — and what it doesn't.

The "hacked again" reflex is wrong. What the Polymarket case actually shows — and the two places where crypto genuinely is harder.