Arena Blog

Five weeks ago it was 10,000 backtests; today it's over 40,000. With 4x the data, the "beats Buy & Hold" rate falls from 64% to 52%, four in five runs land below 50% win rate, and one memecoin still holds its 197,923% record. What selection bias does to sample size — on real numbers.

"Invested in AI healthcare" can mean two almost opposite things. Two real companies show it: an annuity machine with ~86% recurring revenue — and an option with not a single approved drug. Same label, opposite risk DNA.

A smart-money indicator paints clean zones that price seems to respect. Backtest it honestly and the magic fades. The reason is mechanical — repainting and vanished losers — not your skill.

We ran the same RSI/SMA crossover across the top 50 coins and the top 50 US stocks — identical rules, identical window. On crypto it beats the buy-and-hold benchmark 80 % of the time; on stocks, 4 %. Why a trend-following strategy works in one market and bleeds in the other.

"Price gaps always fill" is a myth. What the evidence actually shows — for stock gaps, and for the CME gap, which became history in May 2026.

STRC is below par and the debate is loud. We separate mechanics from myth: how STRC and MSTR work, the misconceptions circulating, and where the risk and the opportunity sit.

The yen carry trade is the hidden fuel of global markets. With real numbers: how it works, why it blew up in 2024, and what it means for stocks and Bitcoin today.

Dual Momentum supposedly beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown. Our GTAA-5 backtest (2007–2026) says otherwise: not on return — but clearly on drawdown.

The 200-day line is the most-cited trend filter in markets: invested above it, out below it. We tested it as a standalone strategy across 110 assets. The result is not one-size-fits-all — on crypto it beats Buy & Hold on return AND drawdown AND Sharpe; on index ETFs it gives up almost no return while nearly halving the drawdown; on single stocks it works poorly. An honest map of where regime timing pays and where it doesn't.

Elliott Wave is subjective in real time. This tool doesn't count waves — it makes your count falsifiable: dip, target, invalidation set upfront, sized to risk.

A 2x ETF promises double the index move — but only for a single day. The daily reset creates a decay that quietly grinds it down in choppy markets. How it works, who's on the other side, and why "×2 the index" is the most classic backtest mistake there is.

An ETF trades like a stock but is really a basket. Why does its price stay glued to the basket's value? An invisible arbitrage crew. How ETFs work, who's on the other side when you buy — and which counterparties (swap, securities lending) almost nobody sees.