Arena Blog

Volatility futures don't trade a price — they trade expected movement, fear itself. How the VIX works, why you can't buy it directly, who sells the crash insurance, and why "Volmageddon" shows how dangerous the other side can get.

The perpetual is crypto's most-traded derivative — a future that never expires. To stop it drifting from spot, longs and shorts pay each other funding. How it works, who's really on the other side of your leveraged long, and why funding flips whole strategies.

With a CFD you never own the underlying — you make a difference bet with your broker. That's what makes the other side delicate: depending on the model, the broker profits from your loss. How CFDs work, what the EU rules changed, and what really matters.

Warrants and knock-out certificates are huge in German-speaking markets — and no instrument makes the other side this tangible: here the issuer is the seller, the market maker and the one quoting the price. How they work, what they're for, and why the barrier and issuer risk decide everything.

Most people meet options as a lottery ticket. That hides almost everything that matters — including who sells you the call and what they do next. How options work, what they're for, and why dealer hedging (gamma) can either calm the market or accelerate it.

Futures sit underneath a huge share of what moves markets — yet most explanations stop at "a bet on price." What a future really is, what it's for, and the part almost nobody explains: who takes the other side, and how they manage the risk.

RSI(2) mean reversion, honestly backtested (2018–2026): on stocks it loses badly to buy & hold; on crypto it wins — for an uncomfortable reason.

Most people don't trade out of greed but out of fear — cash bleeds in silence. That necessity feeds an industry built to drain those traders. Why the only durable defense is learning to verify.

Every additional backtest run increases the chance of finding good results by luck. The Deflated Sharpe Ratio (DSR) corrects for exactly this: it measures whether your result is real — or the best noise from N trials. Pro+ feature.

Win rate alone says little. The new Details tab shows four metrics serious backtester care about: SQN, Expectancy, Profit Factor, and a monthly/yearly breakdown of every trade.

The Bitcoin four-year cycle isn't in the code — only the halving supply schedule is. What real cycles (pigs, chips, ships) teach us about the difference between a causal cycle and a fitted narrative.

There's a way to draw Bitcoin's price that turns fifteen years of booms, crashes and mania into something almost boring: a nearly straight line.