NUPL — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss
NUPL measures the aggregated unrealised profit of all Bitcoin holders. Adamant Capital split the value range into five phases — from Capitulation (< 0) through Hope/Fear, Optimism, Belief to Euphoria (> 0.75). Cycle tops historically sit in the Euphoria zone, bottoms in the Capitulation zone.
- Formula:
- (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ Market Cap
- Originator:
- Adamant Capital / Glassnode
- Data source:
- BRK (Bitcoin Research Kit, brk_nupl, ab 2009). bgeometrics-Inkrement 2026-07 abgelöst (Stabilität).
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library — try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
Trade the market mood, not the noise — average sentiment over a defined cadence window. A unique sentiment-driven strategy for crypto.
Open strategy →The textbook RSI strategy — buy when oversold (RSI < 30), sell when overbought (RSI > 70). Best in sideways markets.
Open strategy →More Bitcoin indicators
Difference between market cap and realized cap, normalised by standard deviation. Values above 5 mark the top region (4 of 5 historical bull tops), below 0 every bottom.
BTC price coloured by MVRV Z-Score regime — from deep accumulation (green) to euphoria (red). Makes valuation phases visible over time.
Ratio between sale price and original cost of all moved coins. Below 1 = sellers at a loss = often a bottom signal. Tabs for STH and LTH.