Power Law
Giovanni Santostasi's Power Law model posits a long-run log-log relationship between BTC price and days since genesis. Unlike a plain log-regression, Power Law uses a second log-transformation, producing more robust fair-value bands across 14+ years of Bitcoin history.
- Formula:
- log(Price) = A + B ยท log(Days since Genesis)
- Originator:
- Giovanni Santostasi
- Data source:
- Binance OHLC (derived)
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library โ try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The benchmark for everything else โ buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy โBuy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule โ week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy โMore Bitcoin indicators
111-day SMA vs. 350-day SMA ร 2. Classic top signal by Philip Swift โ historical crossovers nailed every BTC bull-run top to within days.
Current BTC price divided by the 200-day moving average. Below 1 historically bearish, above 2.4 marks the top 0.5% quantile.
Logarithmic regression on BTC price since 2010 with nine colour bands โ from "Fire Sale" deep blue to "Maximum Bubble" red.