Puell Multiple
Puell Multiple puts miner profitability centre-stage: daily USD issuance รท 365-day MA. Values above 4 mark Bitcoin cycle tops (2013, 2017, 2021), below 0.5 historical bottoms (2015, 2018, 2022). David Puell created the indicator in 2019.
- Formula:
- Daily USD Issuance รท MA(365) of Daily USD Issuance
- Originator:
- David Puell (2019)
- Data source:
- brk_puell_multiple (Bitcoin Research Kit, ab 2011-08-16 nach 365d-MA-Warmup). Chart + API lesen seit 2026-05-30 DIREKT die BRK-Serie (konsistente Single-Methodik). Die bgeo-gespeiste Spalte puell_multiple (Cron btc-metrics-onchain) war ab 2022-05-29 ~5,5ร rauer als BRK (Stitch-Bruch) und bleibt nur noch als Vergleichs-Input fรผr den brk-drift-Monitor.
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library โ try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The benchmark for everything else โ buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy โBuy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule โ week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy โMore Bitcoin indicators
Market cap รท thermo cap (everything ever paid to miners in USD). Market value per dollar of security spend โ measured cycle peaks at ~39ร (2011), ~59ร (2013), ~73ร (2017), ~49ร (2021).
30-day hashrate MA vs 60-day hashrate MA. When the 30d falls below the 60d = miner capitulation. Recovery cross back up = classic buy signal.
Estimated mining floor: average electricity cost + 30% operational overhead per BTC produced. Cambridge CBECI as data source.