HODL Waves
HODL Waves colour Bitcoin supply by age of last on-chain movement β from <1 day to 10+ years. Before every bull run the long-term bands shrink (old coins get activated), in bear markets they grow back. Unchained Capital popularised the chart in 2018.
- Formula:
- Supply-Anteil pro Alters-Band, 13 BΓ€nder
- Originator:
- Unchained Capital (2018)
- Data source:
- bgeometrics /hodlWavesSupplies
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library β try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The benchmark for everything else β buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy βBuy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule β week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy βMore Bitcoin indicators
BTC supply held by large addresses (β₯100 / β₯1k / β₯10k BTC) over time. A rising line means accumulation. Address-based proxy for whale behaviour.
111-day SMA vs. 350-day SMA Γ 2. Classic top signal by Philip Swift β historical crossovers nailed every BTC bull-run top to within days.
Current BTC price divided by the 200-day moving average. Below 1 historically bearish, above 2.4 marks the top 0.5% quantile.