HODL Waves
HODL Waves colour Bitcoin supply by age of last on-chain movement โ from <1 day to 10+ years. Before every bull run the long-term bands shrink (old coins get activated), in bear markets they grow back. Unchained Capital popularised the chart in 2018.
- Formula:
- Supply-Anteil pro Alters-Band, 13 Bรคnder
- Originator:
- Unchained Capital (2018)
- Data source:
- BRK (Bitcoin Research Kit) โ 21 Alters-Spannen unter /cohorts/supply/total/age/, im Haus auf 13 Baender summiert und auf 100 % normalisiert (src/lib/bitcoin-metrics/hodlWavesBrk.ts). Quellenwechsel 2026-09-24: die vorherige Quelle bgeometrics hat ihren Endpunkt abgeschaltet; Abweichung gegen sie gemessen, max. 0,83 pp an Bandgrenzen.
Strategies to backtest
Thematically related strategies from our library โ try them in the backtest engine or read up on the methodology.
The benchmark for everything else โ buy on day one, hold forever. The reference every strategy is measured against.
Open strategy โBuy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule โ week after week, regardless of price. Smooths volatility, removes timing decisions.
Open strategy โMore Bitcoin indicators
BTC supply held by large addresses (โฅ100 / โฅ1k / โฅ10k BTC) over time. A rising line means accumulation. Address-based proxy for whale behaviour.
Circulating supply split into vaulted and active โ weighted by coin-days destroyed rather than an age threshold. The two parts add up to exactly the circulating supply.
How much of the daily destroyed coin days comes from long-term holders โ as a 14- or 90-day window, alongside price. Movement, not ownership.